Heading into fall, the homes that sell will be the ones priced to move. Here is what the numbers are telling us.
The Market Has Been Split Into Two
The summer peak is behind us. New pendings, which are the best read on what buyers are actually doing right now, dropped 12% from June to July across the five-county market, even while sellers kept listing. New listings have carried this market all year, and that supply is expected to taper off through the rest of 2026. So we head into fall with fewer active buyers competing for a larger pool of available homes.
The averages hide what is really going on, because the market has split into two very different stories. Well-priced homes are still moving fast. The typical home that went pending in June did it in 25 days compared to 27 days in July. Half of July’s new pendings were under contract within 10 days of listing, and 61% of July’s closed sales sold at or above full asking price.
The homes that miss that early rush are a different story. The average unsold listing has now been on the market for 85 days. Inventory is climbing mostly because the homes that don’t draw an early offer sit longer.
Why Fall Raises the Stakes
Sales at or above asking peaked at 64% in June and should cool off through the end of the year, the same way they did in 2025. Price cuts and days on market both bottomed out this summer and are already creeping back up. The deeper we get into fall, the more leverage shifts to buyers. The best listings will continue to sell quickly, but with fewer fall buyers, a home in average condition may take a little longer to sell in October.
The Consulting Conversation
Price is the fastest lever a seller controls, and how the home shows is a close second. When you sit down with a fall seller, aim for that first 10-day window where the offers and the over-asking premiums actually happen, instead of reaching for the summer’s top number. Price to entice. Come in right at, or even a touch below, where comparable move-in ready homes are landing offers, and let buyers compete the price up. Push for the peak number and you are likely looking at three months on the market, a string of price cuts, and a lower net in the end anyway.
